June 18, 2023

Brendan Kaminski

11th Grade

Baldwin Senior High School

Russia plays an instrumental role in the global food supply, producing large quantities of corn and wheat. 1 In 2018, Russia’s wheat exports peaked at 26.4 percent of its total exports, making it the largest global wheat exporter.2  These exports significantly contribute to European grain supply, as over 70 percent of Finnish and Turkish grain imports are from Russia.3 However, in July and August of 2022, Russian wheat exports decreased by 22 percent.4 Scholars contend that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the primary source of this decline, overlooking the issue of climate change. Since several European countries depend on Russian agribusiness, this deficit is not simply a domestic issue but impacts the entire European continent. It is therefore vital that the environmental undertones of this topic are addressed. 

Greater instances of severe weather events, such as droughts, are a key characteristic of climatic change. The implications of these adverse weather patterns have already been observed in Russia, with intense droughts contributing to a 40-50 percent decrease in gross grain yields.5  Less rain means there is less moisture and nutrients in the soil for plants to absorb, which can prove detrimental to their growth. Additionally, global temperature augmentation has hindered Russian grain production. Rising temperatures impede plants from being able to conduct photosynthesis, which is vital to sustaining crop populations. Historically, Russia’s cold winters have naturally reduced pests, such as insects and rodents.6 However, recent warmer winters have been conducive to pest proliferation. For instance, increased temperatures have allowed Italian locust populations to inhabit regions of Russia and decimate crops,7  whereas insects and pest populations are usually kept in check by cold winter climates. This influx of pests has forced many farmers to bolster their use of toxic pesticides, fostering further environmental complications. Pesticides introduce contaminated products to the market, limiting the availability of healthy agrifoods necessary to satisfy European nutritional demand. The warmer temperatures associated with climate change are disrupting ecological processes that facilitate Russia’s maintenance of stable grain production. Neglecting the growing climate crisis will ultimately harm European nations that depend on Russia for a substantial portion of their food supply. 

To ameliorate the impacts of climate change and provide relief for the European food supply, solutions must target the sources of increasing temperatures. Greenhouse gases—often emitted via the burning of fossil fuels—contribute to this crisis by trapping solar heat in the atmosphere.8  These gases pose a continued threat to global warming, as they block heat from the sun from escaping the Earth’s atmosphere, instead gradually heating the Earth. While the European Union remains committed to halving its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030,9 Russia has taken minimal action. In 2021, the Russian government proposed legislation to limit greenhouse gas emissions through a carbon credit system and environmental restoration projects.10 However, due to pressure from industrialists, the bill was weakened, only requiring companies to report emissions.11 The aforementioned legislation evinces a grim future for the stability of agricultural production; however, potential solutions do remain. While collaboration with the European Union is unlikely due to the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, Russia can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by switching to cleaner forms of energy, such as hydrogen gas, as suggested by Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak.12 This will minimize the conditions of climate change while simultaneously satisfying industrial demands. By engaging in sustainable reform, Russia will be able to protect the agrifood supply that citizens across Europe depend on.

Notes 

1. United Nations, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, The Impact on Trade and Development of the War in Ukraine (Geneva, Switzerland: UN Headquarters, 2022), 3. 

2. Hanna Duggal and Mohammed Haddad, “Infographic: Russia, Ukraine and the global wheat supply,” Al Jazeera, Al Jazeera Media Network, February 17, 2022, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/17/infographic-russia-ukraine-and-the-global-wheat-suppl y-interactive. 

3. “Share of imports from Russia and Ukraine in total imports of meslin and wheat as of June 2022, by country,” Statista, Statista, Inc., June 2022, 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1302415/wheat-import-dependence-on-russia-and-ukraine-by-co untry/. 

4. John Reidy, “Russian wheat exports sluggish,” World Grain, Sosland Publishing Company, September 2, 2022, 

https://www.world-grain.com/articles/17412-russian-wheat-exports-sluggish#:~:text=MOS COW%2C%20RUSSIA%20%E2%80%94%20While%20Russia%20harvests,shipping%2 0data%20from%20Logistic%20OS. 

5. Roman Gordeev, “Climate Change and Russian Agriculture,” Scholarly Community Encyclopedia, Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute, January 24, 2022, https://encyclopedia.pub/entry/18679#:~:text=However%2C%20climate%20change%20in%20Rus sia,in%20major%20grain%2Dproducing%20regions. 

6. National Intelligence Council, Joint Global Change Research Institute and Battelle Memorial Institute, Pacific Northwest Division, Russia: Impact of Climate Change to 2030: A Commissioned Research Report (Washington, DC: National Intelligence Council, 2009), 29. 

7. E.N. Popova and I.O. Popov, “Climatic Reasons for the Current Expansion of the Range of the Italian Locust in Russia and Neighboring Countries,” Doklady Earth Sciences 488, no. 2 (October 2019): 1256, doi:10.1134/S1028334X19100246. 

8. “Causes and Effects of Climate Change,” United Nations: Climate Action, United Nations, Accessed February 25, 2023, 

https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/causes-effects-climate-change#:~:text=As%2 0greenhouse%20gas%20emissions%20blanket,the%20usual%20balance%20of%20nature. 

9. Victoria Masterson, “The European Union has cut greenhouse gas emissions in every

sector - except this one,” World Economic Forum, World Economic Forum, September 29, 2022, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/09/eu-greenhouse-gas-emissions-transport/. 

10. “Russia Passes First Law to Limit Greenhouse Gas Emissions,” The Moscow Times, The Moscow Times, September 7, 2021, 

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/06/03/russia-passes-first-law-to-limit-greenhouse-gas-emis sions-a74095. 

11. “Russian Federation: Policies & action,” Climate Action Tracker, Climate Action Tracker, November 9, 2022, 

https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/russian-federation/policies-action/. 

12. Jillian Ambrose, “Russia rules out cutting fossil fuel production in next few decades,” The Guardian, Guardian News & Media Limited, November 1, 2020, 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/01/russia-rules-out-cutting-fossil-fuel-produc tion-in-next-few-decades.