June 12, 2024

Blair Joselson

11th Grade

Pine Crest School

Natural disaster losses, especially hurricanes, are increasing. Of the 363 billion-dollar weather disasters since 1980 (as of August 2023), tropical cyclones have caused the most damage: over $1.3 trillion in total, with an average cost of $22.8 billion per event. These event costs continue to increase as factors like global warming cause hurricanes to become more destructive. 

In addition to the increase in hurricane losses, there has also been an increase in the occurrence of rapid intensification (RI). RI in tropical cyclones is defined as the 95th percentile of 24-hour intensity changes which is roughly 30 knots in 24 hours in the North Atlantic. RI can cause a dramatic leap in the Saffir-Simpson intensity scale, sometimes causing the storm to increase from a Category 1 hurricane (64-82 knots) to a Category 5 hurricane (over 137 knots) within a couple of days. These events are challenging to predict and can catch communities off guard, leading to higher forecast errors. Because of this, RI poses substantial risks to coastal areas, emphasizing the need for precise forecasting and direct response. While the commonly held belief suggests that wind and pressure are critical factors contributing to loss, it was examined whether Rapid Intensification (RI) might be the most influential factor for predicting loss. 

Several tropical cyclone metrics were examined to see which factors are the primary indicators of hurricane loss. Using Spearman Rank coefficients, landfall wind speed displayed a positive correlation with loss, and landfall pressure showed an even stronger negative correlation with economic loss. 

Then, the mean of the loss values of storms that underwent RI was divided by the mean of the loss values of storms that did not undergo RI. This value proved to be greater than the same ratio of means normalized by landfall intensity (a factor proved to increase loss). Through further analysis, it was shown that although landfall intensity did have a minor impact on the loss ratio, the primary factor leading to a substantial increase in the ratio is RI. This result introduces the possibility that a weaker storm that intensifies rapidly can cause more damage than a more intense storm that does not undergo RI.

There is an increasing pattern in the number of storms undergoing rapid intensification (RI) within 48 hours of landfall. This information emphasizes the growing importance of monitoring RI, especially in the moments leading up to hurricane landfalls. To address these challenges and improve disaster preparedness, it is important to prioritize improvements in hurricane forecasting, building codes and emergency response strategies.